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Last updated 1st November 2016 by Norman Taylor

 

WHY DAVID ATTENBOROUGH IS WRONG

The logical errors of the 'elite'

Like most of us, I have watched David Attenborough's wildlife programmes over the year with interest and admiration. He is a great and knowledgeable communicator: the best and wisest in his field. Note that I say 'in his field'. Which begs the question: can we trust experts when they venture outside their field?

This is what he said yesterday on the subject of Brexit:

"What we mean by parliamentary democracy is surely that we find someone we respect who we think is probably wiser than we are, who is prepared to take the responsibility of pondering difficult things and then trust him – or her – to vote on our behalf.'

Speaking to BBC presenter Emily Maitlis in the Radio Times, the veteran broadcaster also cited Ken Clarke's new book in which the Tory MP states that if people were asked whether they'd like a National Gallery or a funfair they'd say a funfair.

'There's confusion, isn't there, between populism and parliamentary democracy. I mean, that's why we're in the mess we are with Brexit, is it not? Do we really want to live by this kind of referendum?"

Although he is a brilliant naturalist, David is on less sure ground when it comes to logic. He implies that the people are not wise enough to make important decisions such as whether or not the UK should be in the EU. However, he simultaneously assumes that the people are wise enough to choose their MPs. Some contradiction, surely?

Like so many of the 'elite' he decries 'populism' by approving of Ken Clarke's dismissive rejection of the people. Has anyone checked the arrogant assumption that the people would choose a funfair over a National Gallery? I suspect not.

The danger of the Attenborough approach is that it leads to systems designed to take the people out of decision-making altogether. The EU is a good example of this with all important decisions made by the unelected European Commission. You only have to look at the mountain of catastrophic decisions they have made over the years to doubt whether these 'wiser' men do better than the people as a whole. Would the people have voted for the impoverishing Common Agricultural Policy, the Common Fisheries Policy, the euro, mass uncontrolled immigration etc? The Brexit referendum sent a clear NO to the 'elite' and life will never be the same again.

PS The most successful country in Europe, Switzerland, thrives on referenda. Can David Attenborough and Ken Clarke explain that?

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FEAR OR CONFIDENCE

How will you approach the EU referendum?

Quoting Francis Bacon, Franklin D Roosevelt said at his first presidential speech in 1933:

"The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself!"

He was speaking, of course, about the depression and the prospect of turning the U.S. economy around. Today, he could be talking about the debate on our EU membership. Those who want to stay in, regardless of the outcome of any negotiations, are playing the Fear card at every opportunity. As happened in the Scottish referendum on UK membership, they believe that Project Fear will persuade voters to choose the status quo.  So we can expect more of these fearful arguments:

"Kent will be flooded with migrants from Calais"

“Three million jobs will be lost.”

“Foreign investment in business and industry will stop.”

 “Our economy will suffer as we will be denied access to the EU free trade area.”

“We will lose influence in the world, unable to benefit from EU global trade negotiations.”

“British farmers will go bankrupt without EU support.”

 “We are too small to stand on our own.”

“Being in the EU keeps us safer from criminals and terrorism.”

“The EU has kept the peace in Europe since 1945. Leaving the EU would increase the prospects of war.”

And my personal favourite: "English football would suffer as we could not import top foreign players."

 

Before looking at the alternative to the fear merchants, let’s see if their arguments stand up.

There will be no migrant camps in Kent. This disgraceful claim was made by David Cameron himself, even though he knew it was false. Bernard Cazeneuve, the French interior minister, said that ending the border arrangements would result in a "humanitarian disaster" and is not a responsible solution. "It is a foolhardy path, and one the government will not pursue."

A source at France's Interior Ministry confirmed that his statement remains the official position and that there are "no plans" to reform the agreement.

There will be no job losses.  The ‘losses’ claim is based on a a 2004 paper by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) which estimated that up to 3.2 million UK jobs “are now associated directly with exports of goods and services to other EU countries”. It went on to say that:

“there is no a priori reason to suppose that many of these [jobs], if any, would be lost permanently if Britain were to leave the EU.”

 

They recognized that jobs depend on exports and these will not suddenly stop when we leave the EU. The simple reason is that, for example, six million German jobs are linked to their exports to the UK. There is no way they would jeopardize this trade. As many business people recognize: “we will have a free trade agreement with the EU within 24 hours of leaving it”.

·         Foreign investment will continue. Businesses locate where they can best do business.  This means they look for cost and productivity advantages, a skilled labour force, easy access to their markets and favorable tax regimes.  As the UK will maintain a free trade agreement with the EU, and has lower overall costs than many of the continental countries, manufacturers will continue to invest in the UK. Toyota recently confirmed this by stating whether the UK stayed in the EU or not, they will continue their operations in this country. As will the other global companies.

·         We will gain influence in the world. Freed from the shackles of the EU, which forbids us to make our own trade deals, we would be able to make trade agreements with other countries. We would, for example, be able to make a trade deal with the world’s fastest growing economy, China. The EU has still not got around to doing this yet bars us from trying. It does this by operating trade policies designed to support Germany's export trade in engineering products. This is of little help to the UK whose trade is increasingly based on services.

We will increase trade with the rest of the world.Rather than helping us economically, the EU has made us poorer by preventing trade. As Civitas, the Institute for the Study of Civil Society has calculated, we have lost out on trillions of pounds of trade because of our EU membership.

Since 1970, the EU had concluded just 36 free trade agreements, the report found. The aggregate GDP in 2015 of the 55 countries with an EU agreement in force in January 2015 was $6.7 trillion. In contrast, the aggregate GDP of all the countries with which Chile had agreements in force was $58.3 trillion, Korea's totalled $40.8 trillion, Singapore's $38.7 trillion and Switzerland's $39.8 trillion. The agreements of these four countries included their agreements with the EU, which has a GDP of $16.7 trillion. About 90 per cent of the agreements of these four smaller, independent countries include services, whereas only 68 per cent of the EU's trade agreements do, an omission especially harmful to the UK, with its strong service sector. The EU has therefore opened services markets of just $4.8 trillion to UK exporters, whereas the Swiss have opened markets of $35 trillion, the Singaporeans of $37.2 trillion, the Koreans of $40 trillion and Chileans of $55.4 trillion. Like these independent countries, we will do much better on our own.

 

For the full Civitas report entitled Myth and Paradox, click here.

·         British farmers will continue to be supported. Farming is vitally important to this country and, as in the past before the EU, will get the support it needs to survive and prosper. What country would be stupid enough to let the sector fade away and die?  The difference will be that the rules governing farming will be made by a British government to suit British farmers and not the inefficient farmers of France and Germany.

·         We are big enough to stand on our own two feet.  The UK economy is estimated to be worth $2,828bn (£1,818bn) in total, £1bn bigger than the French. This makes us currently the fifth largest economy in the world with only China, USA, Japan and Germany above us at the top of the world rankings. How much bigger would we have to be to satisfy the faint hearts who make this ridiculous claim?

It's also interesting to explore the underlying idea that you have to be big to succeed. Is it true? The best way of measuring 'richness' is to compare a country's Gross Domestic Product per head of population, taking Purchasing Power Parity into account. The following figures come from the International Monetary Fund estimates for 2014:

 

World position              GDP PPP per head (rounded) in international $

1 Qatar                       137,000

2 Luxembourg                98,000

3 Singapore                   83,000

4 Brunei                        80,000

5 Kuwait                       71,000

6 Norway                       67,000

7 United Arab Emirates    66,000

8 San Marino                  61,000

9 Switzerland                 58,000

10 Hong Kong                55,000

11 United States            54,000

12 Saudi Arabia              52,000

13 Ireland                     51,000

14 Bahrain                    49,000

15 The Netherlands        48,000

(NB The UK comes 27th on this list at 40,000)

 

Although it's clear that oil has played a significant part in making the people of some countries richer than others, oil does not account for the success of countries such as Luxembourg, San Marino, Switzerland, Hong Kong, Ireland or the Netherlands.  Despite being rather small, they have made their people rich by concentrating on aspects where they have particular strengths - such as banking and trade. The UK is in an excellent position to do the same.

 

EU membership makes us less safe

In a recent TV interview, Damian Green claimed that the European Arrest Warrant makes us safer from criminals and terrorists as we can extradite them quicker. He failed to mention that EU law means that we have to accept them in the first place! Anyone holding an EU passport can travel to any other EU country like ours and we are powerless to deny them access. Germany, among others,  is expected to issue passports to more than a million migrants from North Africa and Afghanistan some of whom are undoubtedly latent terrorists. Does that make you feel safer?

 

NATO has kept the peace in Europe since 1949. The EU was only formed in 1993 and still has no military resources (although it now wants to have its own army). It is a deliberate lie to claim that the EU had anything to do with peacekeeping prior to that date or since.

This was underlined recently when the EU had to ask NATO to patrol the Mediterranean in the fight against people smugglers because the EU can do nothing about it.

 

Now David Cameron argues that we have to stay in the EU to tackle ISIS and North Korea. What weapons will the EU use - Directives or Regulations?

 

English football would not suffer. This idiot claim ignores the fact that outside the EU, we would be free to set our own policies on migration, visas, and work permits to suit our economy and the national game.  I can only assume that the people who make this claim have been under the EU for so long they do not understand how a free country operates. After Brexit, the UK government and the F.A. would decide who we let in rather than unelected head-in-the-clouds bureaucrats in Brussels. Which would you prefer?

Having disposed of the Fear arguments, let’s move on to look at some of the messages of

CONFIDENCE following a Brexit (British Exit from the EU).

·         We will become an independent and democratic nation state again. Currently, the EU dictates at least 70% of our laws and regulations. These are compiled by bureaucrats in the European Commission who have no business experience and over whom we have no control. The Commission is the only organisation allowed to propose Regulations and Directives. The EU Parliament is not allowed to – they can only agree (which they do in 99% of cases) or disagree – which they hardly ever do. So we are effectively ruled by people we didn’t vote in and can’t vote out. All that will change when the UK Parliament once again becomes our real government.

This is the European Commission which rules us.

Do you know any of them? Me neither.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I believe that young people, in particular, will be invigorated by the challenges of an out-going and  dynamic society freed from the dead hands of the bureaucrats above. There are exciting times ahead

 

·         We will control immigration. The EU requires us to accept all and every EU citizen who wants to live here, without question or questions. In today’s world of cross-border terrorism this is madness. Germany has just accepted a million immigrants from North Africa and Afghanistan with no questions asked about their background. How many are terrorists? We simply don’t know but even if it’s only one in a thousand that means a thousand terrorists who will soon get an EU passport and can then come here with no questions asked. 

Once we leave the EU we can adopt an Australian-style points system so that only the people we want will be able to come and stay here. Once again, we will be able to control our borders in the interests of our own people, ensuring safety and preventing the downward spiral in wages which has acted to reduce the real incomes of working Brits. We would also let in the top football players we want!

 

·       We will trade freely with the rest of the world. The EU is in relative decline. Owing to its slow growth, the percentage of gross world product is decreasing because of the emergence of economic powers such as China, India and Brazil. In line with this trend, the UK’s exports to the EU are falling steadily and are now significantly less than half. Once freed of the EU’s restraints on trade we can trade more with the fast-growing economies of Asia, South America and the Commonwealth making us, and them, richer. By contrast, the EU population will see steady erosion in their relative standard of living as growth stagnates around 1% a year compared with 3 to 7% for the fast-developing countries.

 

We will protect our financial services. France and Germany are resentful of the City of London which is a world centre of financial transactions and accounts for a significant proportion of UK employment and tax receipts.

As Wikipedia notes: "The financial services industry of the United Kingdom contributed a gross value of £86,145 million to the UK economy in 2004.The industry employed around 1.2 million people in the third quarter of 2012 (around 4% of the British workforce).The estimated amount of total taxes paid by the Financial Services Sector in the year to 31 March 2012 is £63bn, 11.6% of the total UK government tax receipts

Now France is trying to strip Britain of any veto on financial legislation imposed on the City by jealous Eurozone states, which was originally Chancellor George Osborne's key renegotiation demand. But not now. France wants Paris to become Europe's financial centre; Germany wants it in Frankfurt. Together, they will bring in legislation to achieve it. Even if Cameron's feeble negotiations were to succeed, we could not prevent this takeover. The only way is OUT!

 

·      We will free five million small businesses from regulations that hold them back. The EU is designed to help big business to survive by creating regulations that only organisations with large bureaucracies can handle. A recent example is the complex regulations designed to help Europe’s large pharmaceutical companies by effectively banning health products from their smaller rivals.

 

Most small businesses in the UK do not export anything to EU countries yet still have to comply with crushing regulations which cost them dearly.  After a Brexit, these will be swept away so that creative British companies can start up, grow and enjoy the fruits of their labour

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·         We will have British laws for the British people. Laws made by the EU cannot possibly take our needs and wants into account. They have first to satisfy the Germans and French then the other 26 countries. As an island state, with a unique geography, they do not take our needs into account.  Take a recent example. The EU Water Directive required us to consider rivers before people. As a result, most river dredging was stopped so that when we experienced heavy rainfall, many parts of the UK were flooded and homes damaged or destroyed. This will not happen when we regain independence.

UKIP’s Diane James points out: “As long as Britain is in the EU, we are Treaty bound to abide by rulings from the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg. British people should make their own laws and have them interpreted by the British Supreme Court. Otherwise we will continue to be burdened with judgements made by judges that we did not appoint.”

 

·         We will save £55 million a day. We currently send £55 million a day to the EU where it is swallowed up by inefficiency and corruption. EU auditors have refused to sign off the EU accounts for the past 19 years as they are incomprehensible i.e. a giant fraud.

 

·         We will ensure our energy supplies. It’s just been announced that the National Grid plans to build a 15-mile run of huge pylons across Kent to take in electricity from Belgium. Why has this become necessary?  The reason is that Brussels regulations require 30% of our UK generating capacity to come from ‘renewables’ by 2020 to meet spurious ‘climate change’ targets. 24 coal-fired power stations, typically of 500 Megawatts capacity are now being closed and the figure could rise to 36 units (18.000 Megawatts) by 2020. These are perfectly good and efficient electricity generators – they just don’t fit the EU’s made dash for unreliable wind and solar power.

Remember: ‘Alternatives’ don’t work unless the wind blows and the sun shines!

 

We are not allowed to build replacements for our coal and gas-fired power stations so will have to buy our energy from abroad or risk the lights going out across the UK. In the meantime, 12 of our 17 nuclear reactors will reach the end of their working lives, so worsening the problem.

 

 As an independent nation, Britain can build enough gas-fired power plants in just four years to close the current energy gap, compared with the 12 years it will take to build nuclear plants.  Thereafter we can meet our energy needs by a mix of environmentally-friendly oil, gas, coal, wind, solar and nuclear generators.  But we can only do this when we are free from the EU tyranny.

 

FOOTNOTE

The Vote Leave campaign recently highlighted Ten Ways Cameron has failed Britain by listing his broken promises.

 

Click here for the full article.

 

CAMERON'S 10 'BROKEN PROMISES'

1: Taking back control over social and employment laws

2: A ‘complete opt-out from the Charter of Fundamental Rights’

3: Stopping the ECJ overruling our criminal law

4: Changing EU treaties before the referendum

5: Stopping EU migrants coming to the UK without a job offer

6: Removing EU jobseekers after six months

7: Ending EU laws which harm our NHS

8: Stopping the European Parliament meeting in two places

9: Reforming the Common Agricultural Policy

10: Reforming the EU’s Structural Funds

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As the Daily Express points out (19 Feb). Whatever happens in the present feeble negotiations, Cameron can't win.

"Last May he cleverly rode the tide of disillusion and resentment with the EU, which saw more than four million voters back Ukip, by brazenly pledging he would battle for “fundamental reform”.

 

He knew he could never deliver on that promise because no British leader – not Winston Churchill, not Margaret Thatcher – would be capable of stopping an EU dictatorship which is hell-bent on creating a United States of Europe regardless of the wishes of its citizens.

Cameron has taken his begging bowl around the capitals of Europe, filled with the thinnest of gruel, only to have it tipped over his head in Brussels, where the real power lies.

 

Even if he were to get everything he was asking for it would not make a scrap of difference to the number of migrants flooding in and bursting our National Health Service and our schools at the seams.

 

It would not enable Britain to block one single unwanted EU law. Nor would it let our courts have the final say on crucial matters such as whether terrorist have human rights."

The only way is OUT!

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What Brexit would look like for Britain

 

Life outside the EU could be very good for us says Daniel Hannan writing in The Spectator 22 January 2016

 

So what’s your alternative?’ demand Euro-enthusiasts. ‘D’you want Britain to be like Norway? Or like Switzerland? Making cuckoo clocks? Is that what you want? Is it? Eh?’

 

The alternative to remaining in a structurally unsafe building is, of course, walking out; but I accept that this won’t quite do as an answer. Although staying in the EU is a greater risk than leaving — the migration and euro crises are deepening, and Britain is being dragged into them — change-aversion is deep in our genome, and we vote accordingly. Europhiles know that most referendums go the way of the status quo, which is why their campaign is based around conjuring inchoate fears of change.

 

What is the alternative? Well, all the options involve remaining part of the European free-trade zone that stretches from non-EU Iceland to non-EU Turkey. No one in Brussels argues that Britain would leave that common market if it left the EU. Nor, in fairness, do Remainers. Instead, they talk about jobs being ‘dependent on our trade with the EU’, hoping that at least some voters will hear that line as ‘dependent on our membership of the EU’.

 

So when every non-EU territory from the Isle of Man to Montenegro has access to the European free trade area, which model should we follow? The nations arguably most comparable to Britain, being neither microstates nor ex-communist countries, are Iceland, Norway and Switzerland. All three prefer their current deal to ours: 60 per cent of Icelanders, 79 per cent of Norwegians and 82 per cent of Swiss oppose EU membership. Who can blame them? Norway and Switzerland are the wealthiest and second-wealthiest nations on Earth.

Norway is a member of the European Economic Area (EEA); Switzerland is in EFTA. The EEA was established in 1992 as a waiting room for the EU. It contains what was originally envisaged as a transitional mechanism for the adoption of EU legislation — the ‘fax democracy’ which Europhiles like to bang on about.

 

Never mind the archaic metaphor: Little Europeans are nostalgists at heart. The charge is that Norway has no vote in some EU regulations that it later enforces. But this is more a problem in theory than in practice. According to the EFTA Secretariat, the EU generated 52,183 legal instruments between 2000 and 2013, of which Norway adopted 4,724 — 9 per cent. A written answer to a parliamentary question in Iceland found a similar proportion: 6,326 out of 62,809 EU legal acts between 1994 and 2014. Yet rather than use the official statistics, Europhiles have seized on a remark by a Eurofanatical Norwegian minister to the effect that ‘three quarters of our laws’ come from Brussels, and have -solemnly translated that throwaway line into an official-sounding ‘75 per cent’.

 

In Switzerland, there is no ambiguity: the figure is zero per cent. The Swiss sometimes copy EU regulations for reasons of economy of scale, though more often both Switzerland and the EU are adopting global rules. But though Swiss exporters must meet EU standards when selling to the EU (just as they must meet Japanese standards when selling to Japan), they generally don’t apply those standards to their domestic economy. Britain, by contrast, must apply 100 per cent of EU regulations to 100 per cent of its economy.

Switzerland is not a full participant in the single market in services. This doesn’t mean, obviously, that UBS can’t operate in Frankfurt, but it does mean that Swiss financial institutions are not part of the same regulatory structure as those in the EU. If they want to trade there, they must adopt different rules. The flipside, of course, is that Zurich doesn’t need to worry about the expensive and sometimes downright malicious EU regulations that menace London: the Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive, the short-selling ban, the bonus cap, the Financial Transactions Tax.

 

Now here’s the clinching statistic. The EU takes 64 per cent of Swiss exports, as opposed to 45 per cent of British exports. Europhiles like to claim that ‘around’ half of our exports go to the EU, but that figure has fallen by 10 per cent since 2006. How much lower must it go before we drop the idea that we need to merge our political institutions?

 

To summarise, then, Norway gets a better deal than Britain currently does, and Switzerland a better deal than Norway. But a post-EU Britain, with 65 million people to Switzerland’s eight million and Norway’s five, should expect something better yet.

 

The deal on offer is based on free trade and intergovernmental co-operation. We’ll recover our parliamentary sovereignty and, with it, the ability to sign bilateral trade deals with non-EU countries, as Norway and Switzerland do — an increasingly important advantage when every continent in the world is growing except Antarctica and Europe. We’d obviously remain outside Schengen.

 

Would we have to pay a participation fee? According to Professor Herman Matthijs of the Free University of Brussels, who has produced the only like-with-like comparator, Iceland’s annual per capita contribution is €50, Switzerland’s €68 and Norway’s €107 — largely because Norway insists on opting into lots of EU aid and research projects. Iceland, though it has precisely the same treaty terms, chooses to participate in fewer common activities and so pays less. The United Kingdom’s -current per -capita annual payment, by the same methodology, is €229.

 

Why should the other member states allow Britain such a deal? Because it would be in everyone’s interest. The UK runs a structural deficit with the EU, only partly offset by its surplus with the rest of the world. On the day we left, we would immediately become the EU’s biggest export market. The idea that either side would wish to jeopardise the flow of cross-Channel trade is bizarre. And, in any case, it is remarkably difficult, under WTO rules, to apply a trade barrier where you previously didn’t have one.

Many European federalists actively campaign for Britain to be given an economics-only relationship — what Jacques Delors calls ‘privileged partnership’ and Guy Verhofstadt ‘associate membership’. It would allow them to push ahead with a European army, a common tax system and so on, while Britain led an outer tier of some 20 European states and territories, part of a common -market but not a common government.

 

‘Iceland is much better off outside the EU,’ says prime minister Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson. ‘Unemployment is minimal, purchasing power has never been higher, and we have control over our own legal framework, currency and natural resources.’

Iceland has 300,000 people. Britain is the fifth largest economy in the world, the fourth military power, a leading member of the G7 and one of five permanent seat-holders on the UN Security Council. I think we might just about scrape by.

 

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Have decent Muslims forgotten something?

Muslim states haven't done well for their ordinary citizens. This is why hundreds of thousands of them emigrate every year. The puzzling thought is that many of them now want to re-create in the West the rotten states they chose to leave. Does that make sense to you - or have they simply forgotten why they came?

 

Many Muslims have lived happily here and prospered. They are welcome. There is, however, one proviso. We need them to stand up and defeat the terrorists who purport to maim, torture and kill in their name. We need the 'good guys' to point out the errors in the terrorists' vision and make clear they will not get support from the silent majority.

 

They might also want to ask the terrorists: "If heaven is so great, why do the imams want to send you there while they cower in their hideouts? Could it be about power and the good life for themselves? Discuss.

 

The following is taken verbatim from an article in the Independent of 10 December 2015. If this is not a call for action, I don't know what is.

 

Global Terrorism Index:

The map that shows where 42 different militant groups have pledged support to Isis

The groups range from Ansar Al-Khilafah in the Philippines to factions in Egypt’s Sinai province

Isis now has support from 42 different international groups in countries ranging from the Philippines to Egypt, it has been revealed.

The map, produced for The Independent by statistics agency Statista, shows the 30 groups to have pledged formal affiliation to the terrorist group and 12 more that have pledged their support, as identified in a Global Terrorism Index report.

isis-map.jpg
The map of where militant groups have pledged their support to Isis

Isis is the richest and most violent terrorist group in modern history, the report states, and part of its strategy is to attract foreign fighters.

Attacks have been carried out by the Ansar al-Sharia group in Libya, the Okba Ibn Nafaa Battalion in Tunisia, and the Ansar Beit al-Maqdis group in the Egyptian Synai, while the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and the Indonesian Abu Sayyaf group have also pledged their allegiance to the terrorist group.

The Global Terrorism Index, created by The International Institute if Economics and Peace (IEP), measures the scale and impact of terror attacks across the world. The report, released last month, found that global terrorism has reached its highest level and is continuing to rise at an “unprecedented pace”.

Despite the rise of terrorism incidents globally, the majority of people killed in terrorist attacks are in five Muslim-majority countries: Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Nigeria.

Boko Haram, which was the deadliest terrorist group of 2014 and this year pledged its allegiance to Isis, while engaging heavily with the group through “military training, funding channels and social media”.

The five most deadly terrorist groups – Boko Haram, Isis, the Taliban, the Fulani militants and al-Shabaab – were found to be responsible for the 74 per cent of all terrorist deaths in 2014, killing a total of 18,444 people collectively. 

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Giving money away on false pretences - is there a legal term for that?

World leaders are currently meeting in Paris to discuss how to give £1 trillion or more to the 'third world' to 'stop climate change'.

As Douglas Casey,  Classmate of Bill Clinton at  Georgetown  University, once remarked: "Foreign aid might be defined as a transfer of money from poor people in rich countries to rich people in poor countries."

It would be funny if it were not so tragic. It's claimed that this latest handout is based on 'science' which must be true - because it's science. But this is to misrepresent the nature of science. It's not about reality but rather a theory (today called a model) which attempts to use observation to explain how things work. For example, we're not able to look inside a nucleus to observe what actually goes on so we have a theory called quantum mechanics which can explain a lot of what we observe. Not everything, of course. Which is why Einstein called the theory 'incomplete'.

A model is only useful when it matches observations and can help us to make good predictions about the future. In this respect, the climate models today are worse than useless. For example, of the world's 'best' 50 models on climate change, 95 per cent predicted that Antarctic Sea ice would decrease over the past 30 years. But it actually increased.

As Katie Hopkins, writing in the Daily Mail observed: "Global-warming alarmists even went on a jolly expedition to prove their point in the Antarctic and ended up trapped in ice they’d said wasn't there. Climate-change scientists have been shivering in their short-sleeved shirts to find excuses for why the earth hasn't warmed as predicted. They hugely exaggerated the impact of climate change. The last IPCC report showed an increase of just 0.05 C per decade, despite CO2 emissions rising."

Among other brilliant predictions we have:
 
Troposphere will heat up but it hasn’t
Ocean levels will rise dramatically but they haven’t
CO2 levels will precede major temperature changes but they have not
Past CO2 levels would have been low but they were not
Climate models predict man-made global warming but it hasn't happened

Now a team of European researchers has unveiled a new model showing that the Earth is likely to experience a “mini ice age” from 2030 to 2040 as a result of decreased solar activity. Their findings will infuriate environmental campaigners who argue by 2030 we could be facing increased sea levels and flooding due to glacial melt at the poles.

However, at the National Astronomy Meeting in Wales, Northumbria University professor Valentina Zharkova said a reduction in the 11-year cycle of the sun's activity will cause a global freeze, the like of which has not been experienced since the 1600s.

Source: http://www.express.co.uk/news/science/616937/GLOBAL-COOLING-Decade-long-ice-age-predicted-as-sun-hibernates

It seems to make sense. The world's heat only comes from two places: the earth's core or the sun. So, if the sun gives off less heat, the world gets colder.

As yet, there's no way of telling if this new model is any better than those used to date. But it can hardly be worse!

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Appeasement only encourages the aggressor

During the 1930s, the British establishment believed that if you gave in to Hitler's demands he would be satisfied and not ask for more. They were tragically wrong and indirectly responsible for a world war which left 50 million dead. Many historians believe that if we and the French had opposed Hitler's march into the Rhineland in 1936 he would have lost power in Germany and subsequent events would have been very different. Eventually the penny dropped that Germany was intent on world domination and we were forced to go to war. It was accepted that there would be terrible consequences for Britain with German bombing raids followed by an attempted invasion of these islands. But there was no other choice and, after six years of a global war, the nauseous regime was crushed.

We face a similar situation today with a barbaric state in the Middle East. As in Hitler's Germany, ISIS is intent on world domination and imposing its will by murdering all opponents. Just like Britain in the 1930s, fearful politicians and armchair critics fear attacks at home if we attack ISIS in Syria and Irag. Yes, these will happen. But the alternative is too dreadful to contemplate.

It's been estimated that 10% - 20% of the 2.7 million Muslims in Britain sympathise with ISIS and its goal of world domination. This means that we have in our midst up to half a million supporters of a barbaric regime intent on the destruction of our society and civilisation. Even if these estimates are wrong by a factor of 100, that still leaves five thousand potential attackers in our country. Globally there are some 1.5 billion Muslims or about 23% of the world population. Will the terrorists among them be encouraged by ISIS? Yes, of course.

We have seen how just a handful of terrorists can cause mayhem in Spain, Egypt, Tunis, Beirut, Nigeria, Paris, Mali - and throughout the world. The increasing violence in our streets is a direct result of ISIS successes in the Middle East. It's clear that the policy of appeasement has failed again and we can and must now defeat the terrorists militarily. Criticisms of past Western policies and actions in the Middle East are irrelevant. We have to deal with the situation of today - while simultaneously planning for a better future for all in the region.

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The ISIS Goal (from Wikipedia)

ISIS has detailed its goals in its Dabiq magazine, saying it will continue to seize land and take over the entire Earth : “blessed flag…covers all eastern and western extents of the Earth, filling the world with the truth and justice of Islam and putting an end to the falsehood and tyranny of jahiliyyah [state of ignorance], even if American and its coalition despise such.”[168] According to German journalist Jürgen Todenhöfer, who spent ten days embedded with ISIS in Mosul, the view that he kept hearing was that ISIS wants to “conquer the world” and all who do not believe in the group’s interpretation of the Koran will be killed. Todenhöfer was struck by the ISIS fighters' belief that “all religions who agree with democracy have to die”,[169] and by their "incredible enthusiasm"—including enthusiasm for killing "hundreds of millions" of people.[170]

To learn more about ISIS, go to the Wikipedia page at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_State_of_Iraq_and_the_Levant.

Attempts to explain ISIS successes in the Middle East often refer to fashionable causes such as Western colonialism, wealth inequality, refugees and global warming. These all miss the point.

 

At the heart of the problem is that two or more different 'tribes' want the same land. In Syria, for example, ISIS are Sunni Muslims fundamentally opposed to Assad's Shia government. Any post-war plan which does not recognise this reality is doomed to failure.

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